We are strong believers in the impact of foresighting but as researchers, beliefs are far from being enough… So obviously, when you find a longitudinal analysis that specifically checks the performance of firms regarding their expertise in foresighting, you are pretty happy. Rorberk and Kim did precisely that job by developing a Firms’ Corporate Foresight Maturity Level Index :

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They base their index on a mix of « Perceiveing, Prospecting & Probing » that they call the « 3Ps ». Aside of the fact that it is fairly close from the marketing « 4Ps », the approach raises an interesting question : if it is easy to conceive that perceiving (as in weak signals analysis) and prospecting (as in scenario planning) are part of Corporate Foresight. But, we are really ont sure about Probing. Basically, this is all the «  Practices through which firms move from what Gavetti and Levinthal called cognitive searchin the perceiving and prospecting phase to experimental searchin the probing phase ». Basically, anything that is related to acceleration, entrepreneurship or maybe innovation falls into that category, that seems a bit large then.

In any case, the idea of having an aggregated index for firm’s corporate foresighting (CF) approaches is nice, even more when it is put in perspective with CF needs, which the authors also do. They offer the following index based on environmental complexity and environmental volatility :